CONTRACT NOTICE – NATIONAL

1 Authority Details

1.1

Authority Name and Address

1.2

Address from which documentation may be obtained

1.3

Completed documents must be returned to:

2 Contract Details

2.1

Title

Developing a mathematical modelling proof of concept for children looked after in Wales

2.2

Description of the goods or services required

What is required / ‘The Requirements’

Reducing the number of children who are looked after in Wales remains a priority for Welsh Government. Rates in Wales are the highest in the UK . Entering the care system is known to have a detrimental effect on longer term outcomes for children in terms of educational attainment, health, employment, homelessness and criminal justice. Despite higher numbers of children in care, there is variation across Wales. This may be linked to a number of different interactions including, safeguarding practice, deprivation and parental factors.

Understanding these interactions and how they might affect the looked after population and the likelihood of entry to the care system would provide a valuable source of information and insight into the dynamics of the care system that could aid the safe reduction of the children looked after population in Wales. Modelling could also provide a mechanism to test preventative measures to sustain reduction or reduce entry to the care system in Wales.

We wish to work with an experienced supplier or consortia to develop predictive and prescriptive models for looked after children in Wales. Data on children looked after in Wales is reasonably mature with person-based data having been collected for 20 years. In addition to this, a great amount of research has been collected on the wider determinants of care in the UK and beyond.

We require the following:

1 An assessment of available data, research and evidence on children looked after in Wales and elsewhere.

2 A review of available modelling techniques with an appraisal of their suitability for developing a model for children looked after in Wales.

3 A functional proof of concept of a mathematical data model for children looked after in Wales.

4 A working representation of the prototype model developed in conjunction with Social Care Wales and partners on the National social care data portal.

5 Recommendations for scaling the project into beta and production versions.

Aims and objectives

1 To develop novel techniques to better understand the dynamics of the children looked after system in Wales with the ambition of using the insight provided to improve outcomes for children looked after and safely reduce numbers of children looked after.

2 To better understand the wider determinants of becoming looked after and how these factors interact.

3 To continue to refine our modelling approaches to provide better predictive and prescriptive insight.

4 To use the learning from this work and apply it to other areas of care and support.

Outputs

It is expected that the supplier will:

a) Produce a functional proof of concept model for children looked after in Wales.

b) Work with Social Care Wales to demonstrate the feasibility of the model on the National social care data portal for Wales.

c) Produce a report in both Welsh and English containing a write up of your work. This should include:

i. information on the approach to developing the model.

ii. information on how the model has been tested to ensure that it produces meaningful outputs that conform to expectations.

iii. information on the vulnerabilities and limitations of the model and how these may be improved or overcome.

iv. recommendations for progression to beta and production versions of the model.

Please see specification for more detail

NOTE: To register your interest in this notice and obtain any additional information please visit the Sell2Wales Web Site at https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Search/Search_Switch.aspx?ID=128107.

The buyer has indicated that it will accept electronic responses to this notice via the Postbox facility. A user guide is available at https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/sitehelp/help_guides.aspx.

Suppliers are advised to allow adequate time for uploading documents and to dispatch the electronic response well in advance of the closing time to avoid any last minute problems.

2.3

Notice Coding and Classification

2.4

Total quantity or scope of tender

Budget

There is a budget of up to £60,000 (inclusive of any applicable VAT) agreed for this tender.

The Supplier will provide full financial breakdown of the costs associated with the project for consideration through the evaluation process.

Prices must be quoted in pounds sterling and clearly state if VAT will or will not be charged.

Length of contract

The contract will run until 31 March 2023. We realise this is a tight schedule, however if this date cannot be met, please could you include a realistic timeframe for Social Care Wales to consider.

3 Conditions for Participation

3.1

Minimum standards and qualification required

4 Administrative Information

4.1

Type of Procedure

Single stage

4.2

Reference number attributed to the notice by the contracting authority

N/a

4.3

Time Limits

4.5

Language or languages in which tenders or requests to participate can be drawn up

4.6

Tender Submission Postbox

5 Other Information

5.1

Additional Information

(WA Ref:128107)

The buyer considers that this contract is suitable for consortia bidding.

5.2

Additional Documentation

5.3

Publication date of this notice